3I ATLAS Decision Tree

A modest thought experiment. Essay. 1300 words, 7-minute read.

3I ATLAS Decision Tree

By Ray Tabler

We live in interesting times. Which is either a blessing or a curse, depending on your point of view. Specifically, an object (3I/ATLAS) is currently zipping through our solar system at speeds which indicate it came from interstellar space (~130,000 miles per hour). This is the 3^rd interstellar object astronomers have documented (hence the “3I”). Probably not the 3^rd one ever through our neighborhood, just the 3^rd one we’ve noticed.

And 3I is acting strangely, for an inanimate cometary object. Of the 3 interstellar comets observed, 2 of them (3I and Oumuamua) have acted strangely. So, maybe abnormal is normal for these critters. Oumuamua was long and narrow, and seemed to speed up without explanation as it left the solar system. 3I’s tail points the wrong way, and the dust streaming off its flanks has a really odd composition, too much CO₂, not enough iron, too much nickel.

All of this would be, literally, academic if not for one, nagging, questions. Is 3I a simple drifting rocky ball of ice, or an alien probe? Scientists are having some trouble answering that one.

First of all, I don’t know the answer either. The free trial on my crystal ball expired long ago. It never worked all that well anyway. I’m not much of a scientist, or any kind of an astronomer. So, like most people, I can only blink and puzzle at the data and images dribbled out by NASA. I will say, however, that agency is not doing itself any favors huddling over information like a greedy dragon over a hoard. Lack of transparency only fuels wild speculation, and breeds suspicion.

That said, until more information is collected (and released) the only thing we can do is conduct a modest thought experiment. It all boils down to one relevant question. Is 3I/ATLAS a natural object or some kind of artificially-made artifact? Three possible paths flow from that inquiry, and I ‘ll address each in order of increasing consequence.

Let us draw Occam’s razor, and start slashing away. There has never been accepted, credible evidence of interstellar aliens uncovered. Yes, I know. UFOs and all the rest. If indeed our government(s) are withholding the TRUTH from us, they’ve done a pretty good job so far. This is frustrating, because the universe is so vast that the odds are good intelligent life exists out there somewhere. That same vastness also reduces the chances we will find out about those other intelligences to almost nil. I lament.

Unless some conclusive proof of alien visitors tumbles out of this affair, the answer to aliens? will be, “No.” Likewise, if analysis provides natural, if odd, explanations for 3I’s shenanigans. That will take humanity down the left-hand logical branch in the attached decision tree. The net result will be “No change.” We will remain largely ignorant of what lies beyond our doorstep.

In some way, an even more cruel outcome is the middle ground of “Maybe.” Say no definitive answer is left behind when 3I puts our solar system in its rearview mirror. If science can’t puzzle out natural causes for the flyby, and no conclusive proof of alien guidance/occupation is observed, humanity will divide into two camps. (Actually, there will be at least 3 camps. Most people simply won’t care.) Scientists will loathe those ignorant savages who cling to their delusions. Enthusiasts will spin elaborate conspiracy theories of how the TRUTH is being suppressed.

In all honesty, this is already familiar ground. We have lived here ever since 1947, when the world first heard of flying saucers. Although, a train of mysterious comet/probes parading by will likely increase the intensity of the debate. Humanity has long experience dealing with uncertainty, and skirting around the scaffolding of unfinished world views on our way to work each morning. The result will be “No change” with a detour through “Much argument.”

Now, let us consider that some undeniable evidence of alien involvement not only exists but makes its way through the spam filters the powers that be supposedly have in place to keep us in the dark. Assuming there are such filters. Knowing that aliens no-foolin’ exist, would lead to a paradigm shift for humanity. The magnitude of that paradigm shift depends upon a number of factors.

Are they alive, or just robots? Unless there was some braking before we spotted 3I, 130,000 miles per hour is not a very fast speed for traveling between stars. Light zips by at 670 million miles per hour. So 3I is poking along at 0.02 % of light speed. At that rate, 3I would’ve taken almost 900 years to get here from the nearest star (Alpha Centauri). And it didn’t even come from that direction.

Centuries of travel time mean that any organic aliens aboard are either very long-lived, okay with spending dozens of generations cooped up inside of a rock, or snoozing in some kind of cold sleep until a destination is reached. Humanity will have to reconcile to any of those cases, should they present.

It is just as possible that 3I is an automated probe. AIs do not care how many centuries pass while on the job. Assuming uninterrupted power supply and regular software updates. Makes some sense to send interstellar probes controlled by machines. Operating AIs, capable of steering a ship and exploring other stars, will be another layer of shock for us on top of the existence of aliens. Even if we don’t meet the actual aliens, just the equivalent of their Roombas.

Are they sticking around, or just passing through? Oumuamua didn’t slow down. 3I might do the same. That would imply that they didn’t see anything worth stopping for. Or, maybe it’s just a scout for follow on craft. :o That would be rude for them to sail on by without even waving. I’d feel like an uncontacted tribe watching a cruise ship passing, lighting up the night. Which would at least give us a chance to pull up our socks before the next visit.

Eric Flint’s and Dave Freer’s novel Slow Train to Arcturus imagined a multi-generation star ship consisting of a string of linked, but isolated, habitats. As a likely solar system is approached, a single habitat, the next one in rotation, can be jettisoned to colonize the spot. That way, the rest of the ship doesn’t have to waste energy and reaction mass slowing down then reaccelerating again for the next long slog to the next star. Is 3I set up for such operation? We might observe a chunk of 3I calve off for just this purpose. Each habitat in the book was populated by a different group of misfits, which Earth was happy to be shed of. That provided ample opportunity for drama and social commentary. The movies Alien Nation and District 9 related tales of fugitive aliens, who landed on Earth as refugees. Will we soon be dealing with the castoff malcontents or criminals from an alien society? Time will tell.

What are their intentions? This is probably the most impactful question. Maybe the crew of 3I are only exploring for the sake of knowledge and/or trade. Like Columbus.

If the notional aliens currently swinging around the far side of the sun, where we can’t keep an eye on them, plan to stay for a while, what will that mean for us? Maybe they plan to colonize Mars. Elon Musk will be very disappointed. So will I. Maybe they plan to colonize Earth. Elon and I will be even more disappointed. Maybe the aliens don’t give a rip what we think, say, or do, and have the technical advancement to back that attitude up. Or, maybe they’re here to uplift we backwards humans to galactic standards, as they define them.

Place your bets, and watch the wheel spin. Interesting times, indeed.

END.

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